Following Cruise Weekly’s 2012 trend predictions (CW 31 January), this
week we ask UK cruise expert and commentator, Kevin Griffin, to make
his forecasts for cruising this year and beyond.
1. Ships Will Spend More Time In Port
We are already seeing this with upmarket lines, especially those such
as Azamara Club Cruises, Crystal and Silversea. On her 2014 World
Cruise, departing Los Angeles 18 January, the Crystal Serenity will visit 32
ports in 19 countries and include 17 overnight port stays, giving the
opportunity for more detailed exploration, instead of rushing on to the
next port. Silversea’s 2013 World Cruise will be a 115-day cruise from Los
Angeles to Fort Lauderdale onboard Silver Whisper, departing 05 January.
Why? Less fuel is consumed, and fast, multi-country cruises will
become less common. In the end, fewer ports will be covered, but in
more detail. Yet …
2. Some Ships Will Spend More Time At Sea
There is a commercial imperative among mass market lines to keep
coffers as onboard spend approaches and exceeds 40% of fare revenue.
This formula relies more on cutting the number of ports on a typical
seven-night Caribbean or Mediterranean cruise, for example, by dropping
a port, down from say five to four or four to three, and using the time by
steaming more slowly between those that are left. This will of course
mean more days at seas, and, the lines hope, more onboard revenue.
3. Growing Trend to Multiple Embarkation Ports
European lines such as Costa and MSC already offer seven-night
cruises where inventories are split among Genoa (Savona in Costa’s case)
in Italy, Marseilles in France and Barcelona in Spain. In 2011, Norwegian
Cruise Line introduced dual embarkation ports, including Civitavecchia
as well as Barcelona, on its Norwegian Epic seven-night Med cruises, thus
making this ship available to the Italian market as well.
Royal Caribbean International intends to enter the French market this
year in a similar manner with its “Liberté of the Seas,” as she has been
dubbed by some in recognition of a once-famous Transatlantic liner,
embarking passengers at Marseilles or Toulon as well as Barcelona.
Equally, this has now spread to northern Europe with a number of ships
allowing embarkations in both the UK and Amsterdam on some
itineraries. Pullmantur Cruises now use multiple embarkation ports on
certain Caribbean itineraries, allowing boarding of the Horizon for
example at La Guaira, Cartagena or Aruba.
4. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Will Fuel New Cruise Ships
The imposition of more Emission Control Areas, especially in North
America, will see fuel costs rising substantially by 2015 as cruise ships
(along with all other ships) are forced to burn lighter fuels, known as
distillates, within 200 miles of the coast.
Liquid Natural Gas-propelled ships however leave virtually no
emissions at all and Viking Line has already signed a contract with STX
Finland for delivery of a 57,000-ton cruise ferry to carry 2,800 passengers
on the Stockholm-Turku overnight route in early 2013.
5. New Emission Control Areas Will Stunt Growth
The imposition of the North American ECA in 2012 will see growth in
cruising to areas such as Alaska and Canada/New England drop as these
areas are totally within 200 miles of the coast.
Kevin Griffin is managing director of specialist cruise agency The Cruise
People Ltd in London.